Overcapacity problem has led to many industries because of delinquent loans and the brink of bankruptcy, and now, the chemical fiber industry also seems to encounter the plight of excess capacity. Frozen three feet non-day cold. How to seek a break in the winter? "Digestion surplus production capacity, to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading", has become the chemical fiber industry consensus.

As we all know, overproduction will give enterprises a series of problems, such as product sales, capital chain breaks, personnel flow, but to resolve the excess capacity is also a long process, can not be achieved overnight.

The wolf is really coming?

Whether it is PTA, PET, polyester staple fiber, or chemical fiber weaving fabric, due to market sensitivity is not high, coupled with the business in 2009 and 2011, the degree of pre-market economy is too optimistic about the investment with a certain blindness, which makes In recent years, China's new chemical fiber production capacity growth in inertia.

Statistics show that the textile industry in 2013 the average profit margin of 5.4%, while the chemical fiber and filament weaving only 3.7% and 4.5%, behind the textile industry. Behind the data, is the structural imbalance and industry product homogeneity serious situation.

"For the problem of overcapacity, we usually avoid talking, especially on the outside of the industry.We will talk about the tax industry is indeed a downturn, and the bank we will call cash flow can. This diametrically opposed attitude not only Reflecting the hearts of our worries, but also really a helpless. "The face of the current situation, a person who declined to be named to tell the true feelings of chemical fiber business.

"China Textile Industry Federation 2014 spring industry research report" shows that in 2013 China's PTA effective total capacity of 33 million tons, the actual demand of 27 million tons, imports of 2 million tons, over 4 million tons of overcapacity. Is expected to effective production capacity in 2014 will reach 40 million tons, if the increase in domestic demand by 3.5 million tons, imports 2 million tons, 2014 capacity will be an excess of 7.5 million tons.

Faced with the current lack of demand for chemical fiber terminal market caused by short-term chemical fiber products difficult to be digested, China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, said Xiao Xiaoping, industry, low growth and high inventory may gradually become a normal, and high inventory But also presents a new trend, that is, the entire end product sales and retailers to inventory the inventory caused by the upstream transfer.

Market, is the virtual hot or real fire?

With the cotton industry to bring the textile industry fluctuations, chemical fiber as a supplement and replacement of cotton raw materials, in recent years has shown a strong momentum of development, both from the production, product or technical level, have been rapid development.

However, in 2009 and 2011 around the chemical fiber industry, the rapid rise in efficiency, many cotton companies turn to the field of chemical fiber, the market showed "hot" scene, this excessive heat also brought a lot of business illusion, swarmed to invest.

In this regard, Huarui Information Co., Ltd. General Manager Lai Tianming in the "Textile and Apparel Weekly" interview, said: "This irrational investment is the result of the supply and demand asymmetry, resulting in excessive competition in the industry, business efficiency In 2013, the domestic PTA production of about 25.9 million tons in 2014 is expected to have more than 15 million tons of new devices put into operation, the imbalance of production capacity to PTA market pressure doubled.

He said that although the industry there is a period of overcapacity, but the market demand is still growing every year by the end of 2015, capacity and demand growth will be synchronized. With the reduction of industrial efficiency, investment will be reduced, but the chemical fiber industry to enter the boom cycle will need to wait until 2018.

Faced with the industry on the chemical fiber industry production capacity of the problem of excess concerns, but Xiaoping believes that the current capacity to determine excess capacity is still too early.

"Ten years ago, when the chemical fiber production capacity is only 6 million to 7 million tons, when shouting excess capacity, 2007, 2008, production capacity of 20 million tons, also called overcapacity. Today, China's chemical fiber production capacity reached 45 million Ton, there are still people in the shouting excess capacity. This is equivalent to always feel wolf before, the wolf did not come, and now there may be wolves, but we numb, it may be the market capacity is indeed beyond our expectations. Xiaoping said.

Difficult choice: still not on?

According to the National Bureau of Statistics statistics above the scale of enterprise data show that in 2013, the chemical fiber industry to achieve total profit of 25.98 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3%. The industry average profit margin was 3.6%, slightly higher than the 0.3% in 2012. Industry losses of 17.4%, loss-making enterprises loss decreased by 9.3% year on year. Among them, the total profit of the polyester industry decreased by 3.1%, spandex industry profit increased by 3.4 times, viscose staple fiber overall loss.

It can be seen that the current chemical fiber enterprises generally under great pressure, and with the production pressure from the downstream end products to the upper reaches of the transfer, the upper reaches of the inventory increase, lower product prices, corporate profits gradually reduced or even loss. Some companies even feel that the situation is even more severe than in 2008, is expected in 2014, this pressure will continue. But at the same time, they also recognize that the current surplus is a stage, structural, time and market competition will be part of the backward production capacity eliminated.

Ju Cheng Technology Group Co., Ltd. has long been committed to the development of chemical fiber products. Company executive vice president Shen Bai root frankly, at present, Jincheng's production and sales basically flat, but the enterprise is still the backlog of inventory since 2012, the reason, he analyzed that the previous product positioning is the market products, and products are more conventional, In the future, Giant will be specifically for the production of orders, and gradually cancel the production of market products.

He also revealed that, in view of the current chemical industry appeared in the phenomenon of excess capacity, giant has changed the routine development ideas, adjust the production structure.

At present, Ju Cheng's chemical fiber business is mainly concentrated in the post-weaving. Enterprises do not have the first melt, silk, polymer lines and other production lines, but the first on the road after the bomb, and this part of the required chemical fiber raw materials to take out the way. This approach on the one hand to ease the excess capacity of enterprises, on the other hand, with the chemical fiber prices lower, but also for enterprises to save some of the raw material costs.

It is reported that Ju Cheng had approved the 600,000 tons of chemical fiber project is still not launched, they choose to continue to wait and see the market. Indeed, the industry once the excess capacity, it is necessary to make painful choice of enterprises, enterprises to consider efficiency, to resource integration, to accept mergers and acquisitions and mergers and acquisitions, to reduce costs, whether voluntary or helpless, companies have "Change".

Controlled surplus, brewing "capacity to go away"

Nowadays, chemical fiber enterprises are faced with the supply and demand imbalance caused by the excess capacity of conventional products. In this case, the business first felt that the profit margins were compressed.

In this regard, industry analysts believe that the chemical fiber industry production capacity surplus, the future of this problem will be more prominent, the industry's bargaining power will also decline.

Constant chemical fiber in the industry's overall competitiveness in the first place, its development has also been widespread concern in the industry. According to Jiangsu Hengli Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager, Secretary of the Board Li Feng introduced, at present, constant force PTA production capacity reached 4.4 million tons, PET polyester production capacity reached 2.4 million tons, PET fiber 1.2 million tons, PET industrial fiber 200,000 tons The

However, the face of chemical fiber industry stage overcapacity this problem, constant force seems to have not been greatly affected. Li Feng said that let the "capacity to go out" is their solution to the crisis of the industry profits.

It is reported that Hengli chemical fiber products to meet the domestic market at the same time, but also actively into the developed countries and emerging countries, in Japan, South Korea, Turkey and other places of the PET fiber market share is considerable, with high visibility.

Sheng Hong Group this year, there are new PTA project put into operation, the company smiled and said there will be no pressure on May futures contracts. The company believes that in the history of the development of chemical fiber industry, there have been many concerns about the excess capacity of PTA, but the actual situation did not imagine so serious, but psychological to the market caused downward pressure.

According to the reporter to understand, from the current market point of view, differentiated products and new products more favored by customers, Sheng Hong Group phase of the bio-based fiber, from last year to play innovative ideas, more than 80% of the products are differentiated products.

For those who often deal with foreign customers Sheng Hong Group, environmental protection is one of the factors to consider. Company insiders said, Sheng Hong will find the relevant enterprises to produce green products. At the same time, also hope to get government support.

To resolve the crisis still need to fuel the flames

In an interview with reporters, many chemical fiber enterprises have said that through the market means to establish the survival of the fittest mechanism, so that enterprises free competition. Through market competition, efficient enterprises continue to grow, and the lack of efficiency of enterprises are out of the market, for efficient enterprises to make more room for development, in order to achieve the upgrading and development of the industry.

In this regard, Li Feng proposed that the relevant government departments to industrial development to create a fair competitive environment, build a professional market platform, such as fair and equitable market trading environment, fair and orderly fiscal and taxation mechanism, a good ecological and environmental protection mechanism, reasonable Intellectual property protection mechanism, the survival of the fittest technical standards to establish a mechanism to protect the fair international trade coordination mechanism, and so on, and do not interfere with the normal market behavior.

At the same time, he hoped that scientific research institutes can put down their posts, into the enterprise, a real understanding of enterprise equipment and research and development capabilities. Make full use of the basic research resources of scientific research institutes, academic ability and international technology frontier information resources, combining production and research to achieve the application of research results, application technology products, product technology market-oriented ultimate goal, crack industry stage excess capacity problems , To achieve win-win situation.

Faced with the current bottlenecks in the development of the industry, Chemical Fiber Association also proposed that overcapacity is not a single industry problem, so by deepening the economic system reform to resolve, relying on market forces, rather than administrative means.

Xiao Xiaoping pointed out that reform is not only an industry problem, but also related to the financial system. For example, when the industry is profitable, the bank gives money and does not operate according to the market economy model. There is also a situation that is difficult to run the industry, this is a good opportunity for mergers and acquisitions, but the business by local guarantees, the Government does not want the enterprise down, the merger is very difficult. These need to be gradually resolved in the reform.

At the same time, he called for regular release to the enterprise national PTA / PET production data, so that enterprises in accordance with market demand to form a more balanced operating rate. Enterprises should also strengthen the communication between each other and the integration of resources to avoid greater losses.

In understanding the current banks in the mortgage when they do not want to accept the equipment collateral, the Chemical Fiber Association also said that they will actively play their role in promoting cooperation between banks and enterprises to solve the financing problems faced by enterprises.

Views of the parties

Ten years ago, when the chemical fiber production capacity is only 600 million to 7 million tons, when shouting excess capacity, 2007, 2008, production capacity of 20 million tons, also called overcapacity. Today, China's chemical fiber production capacity reached 45 million tons, there are still shouting excess capacity. This is equivalent to always feel wolf before, the wolf did not come, and now there may be wolves, but we numb, and may also be the market capacity is indeed beyond our expectations.

- China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, chairman of the board

Irrational investment caused by the end result is the supply and demand asymmetry, leading to excessive competition in the industry, business efficiency was significantly lower. In 2013, the domestic PTA production of 25.9 million tons, 2014 is expected to have more than 15 million tons of new devices put into operation. The imbalance of production capacity to PTA market pressure doubled, and now, the chemical fiber industry is only like real estate, take time to digest excess capacity.

- Huarui Information Information Co., Ltd. General Manager Lai Tianming

Now our company's production and sales basically flat, but there is still the backlog of inventory since 2012. In the past, the product positioning of the product is the market product, and the product is more conventional. In view of the current chemical fiber industry, the phenomenon of overcapacity, we have changed the conventional development ideas, adjust the production structure, the future will be specifically for the production of orders, and gradually cancel the production of market products.

- Shen Cheng Technology Group Co., Ltd. executive vice president Shen Bai root

Faced with the chemical fiber industry overcapacity of this problem, we are not affected by the big, so that "capacity to go away" is to resolve the crisis of our industry profits.