The uniqueness of this report. From the Chinese industrialization process and the long-term trend of China's consumption structure upgrade and the international oil price decline in the medium-term trend, proposed to give the plastics industry holdings of investment rating; In addition, the plastic industry stocks are divided into three categories, giving different valuations.
Plastic is important in the economy. Due to the many advantages of plastics and its wide application in the national economy, the plastics industry in today's world occupies a very important position.
China 's plastics industry trends. Plastic building materials and new packaging materials will become the main field of rapid growth of the plastics industry; the future of plastic in the home appliance industry and the automotive industry is very broad application space; modified plastics in the industry's position has become increasingly prominent.
Crude oil prices and plastic products upstream resin prices basically showed a positive correlation between the positive.
We give the plastic industry "overweight" investment rating. One of the long-term positive: the process of industrialization of China needs the development of plastic industry support; long-term positive two: consumption structure upgrade need to support the development of the plastics industry; medium positive: the international crude oil prices fell for the plastic industry to reduce the cost of space.
Investment ideas for plastic stocks. The market for the chemical industry in the new material stocks generally given a high valuation. In line with this point, for the individual stocks in the plastics industry, we propose the following investment ideas: for the downstream market close to the consumer goods market and the downstream market have the right to speak the company we will be defined as "consumer" type, compared to the new materials company High valuation; for companies with performance growth and other stimulus, we define it as "fundamentals to improve + catalyst release" type of company, combined with the actual situation of the company to give a higher valuation; for only because of falling oil prices led to income Increase the company, we basically still see it as a cyclical company, giving a lower valuation.
Investment points
The plastics industry is a wide variety of chemical sub-sectors. The rapid growth of the world plastics industry, the development of the Asian plastics industry compelling, China's plastics industry development and prospects of the world attention. China's plastics industry has developed rapidly, is currently ranked second in the world's plastic products production rankings, has become the world's plastics power. From the synthetic resin, China's synthetic resin growth rate is more than 2 times the GDP growth rate. High-growth plastic products industry is also facing many problems. How to look at this important sub-industry development process, in this round of bull market how to invest in which stocks? After detailed analysis of the world and the Chinese plastics industry in all aspects, we from the Chinese industrialization process and the Chinese consumer structure to upgrade the long-term trend and the international oil prices fell in the medium-term trend, proposed to give the plastic industry holdings of investment rating. At the same time, we will be divided into three categories of plastic companies, given different valuation, given Guangdong Rongtai (600589) and Yongxin shares (002104) buy rating, given Cangzhou Pearl (002108), blonde technology (600143), the Branch Yinghua (600110) and long garden new material (600525) overweight rating.
Due to the many advantages of plastics and its wide application in the national economy, the plastics industry in today's world occupies a very important position.
China's plastics industry has developed rapidly. From the synthetic resin, China's synthetic resin growth rate is more than 2 times the GDP growth rate, imports accounted for half of the country. In general, China's plastic products industry has obvious regional, the main production areas are basically concentrated in the southeast coastal areas, and China's major industrial space layout characteristics similar. The rapid development of plastic products processing industry, thanks to the production of plastic products used in synthetic resin, additives manufacturing industry and processing machinery and equipment and mold manufacturing industry, the rapid development of plastic products processing industry at the same time the rapid development also greatly promoted the upstream Industry development.
China's plastics industry is facing the main problems: First, the upstream synthetic resin supply and demand contradiction; second, the overall level of equipment is low, the product structure is unreasonable; Third, the market concentration is insufficient, failed to form an intensive scale.
China's plastics industry trends: First, the plastic building materials and new packaging materials will become the main field of rapid growth of the plastics industry; Second, the future of plastic in the home appliance industry and the automotive industry is very broad application space; Third, The status of the industry has become increasingly prominent.
Crude oil prices and plastic products upstream resin prices basically showed a positive correlation between the positive.
China's agricultural film industry in the future development of two ideas: First, pay attention to the development and application of multi-functional agricultural film, the functional membrane from the current 23% to 50% or more; second, to strengthen large-scale production, Level redundant construction. Plastic pipe industry is currently a very rare opportunity for development. This is mainly due to many national key projects, China's accelerating urban processes, rural drinking water and safety water supply projects, urban heating pipe network transformation, the building to increase the water pipe network design opportunities will promote the application of plastic pipe market Increase. After 20 years of growth and development, China's plastic profile and plastic doors and windows industry already has the world's first production capacity and the first market demand. Industry main products - plastic profile production capacity has been basically formed. In contrast, the industry market concentration is higher. Plastic packaging sub-industry is facing a major problem is overcapacity, repeat the construction of serious. The development of new products, reduce product similarity is the future development of the sub-industry a way out.
One of the long-term positive: the process of industrialization of China needs the development of plastic industry support; long-term positive two: consumption structure upgrade need to support the development of the plastics industry; medium positive: the international crude oil prices fell for the plastic industry to reduce the cost of space. Based on these three points, we give the plastic industry "overweight" investment rating.
The market for the chemical industry in the new material stocks generally given a high valuation. In line with this point, for the individual stocks in the plastics industry, we propose the following investment ideas: for the downstream market close to the consumer goods market and the downstream market have the right to speak the company we will be defined as "consumer" type, compared to the new materials company High valuation; for companies with performance growth and other stimulus, we define it as "fundamentals to improve + catalyst release" type of company, combined with the actual situation of the company to give a higher valuation; for only because of falling oil prices led to income Increase the company, we basically still see it as a cyclical company, giving a lower valuation.
Industry articles
1. The overall development of the world's plastics industry
1.1 synthetic resin, plastic, plastic products
Synthetic resin, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber three kinds of polymer materials has become an indispensable new material, has been with steel, wood and cement together constitute the modern society in the four basic materials, but also to support the development of modern high-tech One of the basic materials is an indispensable material in the fields of information, energy, industry, agriculture, transportation and even space and marine development and other national economy. At present, the ratio of the above three categories of polymer materials is about 65: 30: 5, we can see the importance of synthetic resin.
Plastic is made of synthetic resin as the main ingredient. There is a need for a simple distinction between "synthetic resin", "plastic" and "plastic product". "Synthetic resin" is the use of chemical methods, synthetic synthesis of a natural resin and similar organic polymer materials. "Plastic" is a resin as the main component, and then add a variety of additives, such as inorganic fillers, pigments, a variety of additives and mixed, after a certain molding method, the development of a specific performance of the plastic material.
What we usually call "plastic" is plastic.
1.2 The rapid growth of the world's plastics industry, the development of Asia's eye-catching
Due to the many advantages of plastics and its wide application in the national economy, the plastics industry occupies a very important place in today's world (see the appendix for the characteristics of this article). Over the years the production of plastic products around the world with amazing high speed development. World plastics production in 2004 reached 212 million tonnes, up 5 percent from 2003 and 34.4 percent, 30.7 percent and 25.9 percent of total world production in Asia, Europe and North America, respectively. Since 2003, the proportion of Asian plastic production in the world's total output has increased significantly.
In 2004 the world's per capita plastic production of 33 kg, some developed countries per capita plastic production of about 100 kg, the United States up to 170 kg, compared with 180 kg in Belgium. China's plastic production in 2004 was 17.91 million tons, apparent consumption (export of plastic products in the domestic apparent consumption) of 38.13 million tons, exports of plastic products 10.78 million tons.
In 2004 China's plastic production and consumption in the world are second only to the United States (the United States were 48.5 million tons and 51.47 million tons) ranks second in the world. However, per capita level, the per capita production of plastic products is 13.8 kg, per capita apparent consumption of 29.3 kg, per capita consumption of 21.04 kg, this level compared with the world's developed countries is still a big gap, even from the world average level is still There is a certain distance.
1.3 growth faster than GDP, the substitution effect is obvious
Due to the superior function of plastic, its alternative to other materials such as steel, aluminum, wood and cement continues to grow at a rate that exceeds GDP growth.
World plastic production in 2003 was 206 million tonnes, up 6.2 percent from the previous year. In the same year the world GDP growth rate of 3.2%, plastic growth rate over GDP growth. 1999-2003, the world average annual growth rate of plastic 5.02% over the same period the world's GDP growth rate is 2.43%, the world's steel production average growth rate of 1.83%. The average annual growth rate of world plastic demand is 2.06 times the GDP growth rate over the same period, which is 2.75 times of the steel production growth rate.
1.4 five general-purpose resin dominated, the fastest growth rate of polypropylene
Five general-purpose resin accounted for 70% of the world's total synthetic resin. In 2004 the world's five general-purpose resin production capacity of 175.9 million tons, the output of 149.7 million tons, about 68% of total plastic production. Polyethylene accounts for 40% of the total output of the five general-purpose resins, 25.5% of polypropylene, 20.1% of polyvinyl chloride, 10.2% of polystyrene and 4.2% of ABS resin. From the growth rate of 5 years from 1999 to 2004, polyolefin and ABS resin have a faster demand growth rate, especially polypropylene, whether it is the growth rate of production capacity or production (which can be approximated as the demand) growth rate Ranking first. Chemical industry experts also predict the next 5 to 10 years the fastest growing resin for the polypropylene.
2. China's plastics industry development
2.1 China Plastics Industry Development
China's plastics industry has developed rapidly. In 1949, the national total output of plastic products is only 200 tons. 1958 China's first set of PVC resin production plant in Jinxi chemical plant built, marking the Chinese plastics industry into a period of rapid development. In 1958, the output of domestic plastic products was 24,000 tons, 130,000 tons in 1965, 994,000 tons in 1979, and jumped to 354.2 million tons in 1988 and 15.34 million tons in 1996. 2004 has been close to 20 million tons, the total processing capacity has more than 20 million tons, ranking in the world of plastic products ranked second in the rankings. In addition, China's plastics industry's export capacity has also been greatly improved. Customs statistics show that from 2001 to 2005, China's annual export growth rate of plastic products reached 25% in 2005 exports totaled 16.6 billion US dollars, accounting for its total industrial output value of 1/4 strong.
From the synthetic resin, China's synthetic resin growth rate is more than 2 times the GDP growth rate, imports accounted for half of the country. From 1990 to 2004, the annual growth rate of the five kinds of general resin consumption in China was 19.0%, which was 2.04 times of the average annual growth rate (9.3%) of the same period. The growth rate of polyethylene was 13.5%, polypropylene was 21.7%, 14.4% of polyvinyl chloride, 30.1% of polystyrene and 45.9% of ABS. ABS production is the fastest growing, followed by polystyrene and polypropylene. The average annual growth rate of polyethylene consumption in the same period was 17.2%, polypropylene was 21.0%, polyethylene was 18.0%, polystyrene was 20.4%, ABS was 32.7%, polypropylene and styrene resin had faster consumption Growth. The specific situation can be seen in Table 3. 1990-1994, the average satisfaction rate of domestic resin was 49.5%, imports of resin accounted for half of China's general resin market.
2.2 China's plastics industry's spatial layout characteristics
From the regional distribution of plastic products production, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta has obvious advantages, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces total output of 10.418 million tons, accounting for 56.4% of the total output of plastic products.
From the provinces of plastic products produced by the proportion of the proportion of similar products in the country: Guangdong Province, plastic film, plastic crates and containers, household plastic products, other plastic products production ranks first in the country; Zhejiang Province plastic rods, plastic artificial leather , Plastic synthetic leather ranked first in the country; Jiangsu Province, the first volume of foam production in the country; Liaoning Province, the production of plastic sheet metal sheet ranked first in the country; Shandong Province, plastic silk and knitwear production ranks first in the country.
In general, China's plastic products industry has obvious regional, the main production areas are basically concentrated in the southeast coastal areas, and China's major industrial space layout characteristics similar. Policy, capital, technology, labor force and geographical factors are the main reasons for this result. In the future, with the development of the western region, the proportion of plastic products in the central and western regions will be increased. The situation is difficult to occur in the short term significantly changed, plastic products industry spatial layout characteristics are difficult to change in the short term.
2.3 The development of plastic processing industry can not be separated from the upstream industry support
The rapid development of plastic products processing industry, thanks to the production of plastic products used in synthetic resin, additives manufacturing industry and processing machinery and equipment and mold manufacturing industry, the rapid development of plastic products processing industry at the same time the rapid development also greatly promoted the upstream Industry development.
China's synthetic resin industry from 1958 Jinzhou built the first set of PVC resin production plant started in 1990, the domestic production of synthetic resin increased to 2.68 million tons, accounting for the world's total production of synthetic resin 2.29%. Between 1990 and 1999, China's synthetic resin grew at an average annual rate of 15.34%, three times the average annual growth rate of the world. In the synthetic resin varieties, the current five general-purpose resin still occupy an absolute dominant position, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene and ABS total production accounts for about 95% of the total production of synthetic resin, polyether, poly Formaldehyde, polytetrafluoroethylene, polyamide and other engineering plastics accounted for about 5%. Synthetic resin types and grades are basically in line with the requirements of the processing industry, which for the development of plastic processing industry to create favorable conditions.
The plastic auxiliaries are processed and produced with the desired properties |
